Entanglements behind the peak sales of constructio

[industry] the entanglement behind the bumper sales of construction machinery

"more than 2 million yuan was made, and less than one third of the payment was received." He Shi (a pseudonym) has taken a stake in this machine. In the past 10 months, although he has continued to undertake projects, the pressure of payment collection has made him sigh that it is not easy to change careers. After the 2018 Spring Festival, he Shi, who is engaged in clothing wholesale business, disposed of the clothing stall in Guangzhou and invested nearly one million yuan to buy a rotary drilling rig in partnership with others. At that time, the market grew in an almost crazy way. "We are looking for machines everywhere, and we also ask people to arrange the number." He Shidui said

according to the data of China Construction Machinery Industry Association, the 25 host manufacturing enterprises included in the statistics from January to December 2018 sold 203420 sets of various mining machinery products, with a year-on-year increase of 45.0%. 184190 domestic (excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan), up 41.1% year-on-year. The export sales volume was 19100 units, with a year-on-year increase of 97.5%. From the monthly comparison, the trend showed a trend of high before and stable after. The main outbreak period was concentrated in the first quarter, and the growth rate was relatively stable in the second and third quarters. The fast turnover demand of real estate enterprises, the expiration of the policy of replacing subsidies with awards for PPP projects, and the centralized commencement of major infrastructure projects are the main factors. As for the trend of construction machinery industry in 2019, insiders believe that the tightening trend of property market regulation remains unchanged, the number of land auctions has increased and the transaction premium rate has decreased, and the business of some real estate enterprises has contracted significantly. The growth or limited construction area of real estate will affect the sales of construction machinery. Infrastructure investment will become an important factor in the sales of construction machinery. It is expected that the sales situation next year will be cautiously optimistic, and the sales of construction machinery may achieve% growth

the market is hot

for construction machinery dealers, after rising in 2017 and 2018, the future trend of the market makes them feel entangled. "Since 2018, we have sold about 100 rotary excavators in Chongqing, which is twice as high as last year. How about the bearing elasticity of spring testing machine? What will happen next year? The company's statement is that the economy continues to improve. But it's not good how to reflect it in the field of infrastructure and real estate." Chen Lu (a pseudonym), an agent of a listed construction machinery company in Chongqing, was quite impressed. "Since January 2018, sales have risen all at once. The Spring Festival has not stopped, just communicating with manufacturers to prepare goods."

relevant data show that from January to February 2018, the sales volume of excavators nationwide increased by 135% and 297.65% year-on-year respectively. "The first two months had a good start, and the confidence of the whole year was sufficient." Chen Lu said

He Shi heard a friend say during the Spring Festival, "now the project is very easy to do, and many construction sites lack piling." After some verification, he Shi decided to give up the clothing wholesale business and invest in the sales of construction machinery. But after the Spring Festival, it is difficult to buy equipment. Chen Lu said that Sany Heavy Industry, Shanhe intelligent, (Hong Kong stock 01157) and other major spin digging brands basically have to arrange for goods in Chongqing. "Some people who do engineering also ask us to buy numbers." At that time, Chen Lu's main work was to communicate with the manufacturer, "we all hope that the manufacturer can give priority to supplying ourselves."

from the perspective of Chen Lu, he calmed down a lot in the second quarter. Chen Lu told the China Securities Journal that the brand he represents has sold about 100 units this year. "June and July, Chengdu was scheduled at the beginning of the year. After the beginning of the second quarter, the sales volume of medical packaging. The future development trend is to speed up the upgrading of packaging system products, which is relatively stable."

a person from a bank in Hunan told that the loan of construction machinery has increased significantly since 2018 compared with previous years. The mortgage and leasing business of the bank's gold leasing company on construction machinery is very popular. "Some are old machines as collateral, and then loans to buy new equipment; some are directly rented. This business has roughly doubled over the previous year."

He Shi also said that his career change had a good start. "This rotary excavator is a new model. Its mountain and wading functions are good, and road and bridge projects can also be used. Since 2018, this machine has not been idle, and various projects are running, including real estate, road and bridge projects."

Chongqing is one of the main working areas of this machine. He Shi and Chen Lu both said that in the first quarter of 2018, the construction of real estate in Chongqing was better, and the demand for fast construction and turnover of real estate enterprises was obvious. In terms of infrastructure construction, benefiting from the construction of high-speed rail and new terminal buildings, there are many highlights

shows that in 2018, Chongqing's new housing construction area was 17.04 million square meters, an increase of 74.7% year-on-year. In 2018, the new construction area of houses in Chongqing was 60.4503 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 34.1%. From the perspective of month on month, the growth of new construction area was more obvious in the first quarter

nationwide, according to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in 2018, the new construction area of houses was 168800 square meters, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 16.3%. Soochow Securities pointed out that developers take the initiative to adopt a high turnover mode of quick start, quick opening and quick payment collection in order to alleviate the operating pressure. This is also one of the reasons why the downstream demand for construction machinery continues to be strong

the growth of sales volume drives the performance of relevant listed companies to rise throughout the year

taking Shanhe intelligence as an example, the company said that under the guidance of the policy of making up for weaknesses in infrastructure construction, the construction machinery industry maintained a high boom. It is expected that the net profit attributable to shareholders of Listed Companies in 2018 will change from 462million yuan to 543million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 185%-235%. In addition, Sany Heavy Industry, Liugong, XCMG machinery and other major listed construction machinery companies saw significant growth in their third quarter results

each has its own hidden worries

as a bumper year for the construction machinery industry, 2018 is not all joy. Manufacturers, agents and downstream operators of construction machinery have their own hidden worries and troubles

"we are in the same boat with the downstream real estate and infrastructure. If there is a problem in the downstream, it will certainly be transmitted to the upstream." Chen Lu said that especially in the third quarter, the real estate industry showed a downward trend. "If the trend does not change, the demand for construction machinery in the real estate sector will definitely shrink."

the latest data reflect the different temperatures of the upstream and downstream

according to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in January, the new construction area of houses was 168800 square meters, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 16.3%. In June, the sales area of commercial housing was 133100 square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 2.2%. The year-on-year growth rate of new housing construction area and commercial housing sales area differentiated

insiders told, "from the perspective of downstream construction, infrastructure investment has not been good since 2018, while real estate investment has gone up. But the trend of real estate investment next year is worrying."

Chen Lu recently received a report on the future situation from the manufacturer, which shows that the economy will continue to improve next year. But Chen Lu felt that the relevant solution was to check whether the power line connected to the experimental machine was connected normally; Check whether the emergency stop switch is screwed up; Check whether the power supply voltage connected to the experimental machine is normal; Check whether the fuse on the socket of the machine is burnt out. The report is a little vague. "Which one is going well? How about the real estate and infrastructure that are closely related to us? It's impossible to judge."

for he Shi, although the project is full, it is more difficult to collect money. This also made him realize that the "money path" was uneven. "Five or six projects have been done, and the project funds of more than 2.4 million yuan have now returned about 700000 yuan. According to the share allocation, it may take several years to return to this cycle." He Shi said that the first domestic polyglutamic acid and polylysine industrialization production lines were completed in 2009, and that the cost of backhoes was increasing. "The transportation cost of rotary excavation and field transfer and the labor cost of rotary excavation operators are rising; the depreciation is 200000 yuan per year, and other maintenance and oil costs are also considerable."

a person from China Construction Second Engineering Bureau who has been in the industry for many years told that compared with previous years, it was more difficult to collect money in 2018

it is not easy for banks to lend to construction machinery manufacturers. The above bankers told that the overdue rate and non-performing rate of construction machinery loans have been rising in the past six months. "Some people have brought a certain leverage loan to buy equipment, and the payment collection is not good, so they begin to default on the loan."

compared with the purchase of new equipment, the second-hand engineering market has increased significantly this year. But compared with purchasing new equipment, the risk is greater

the biggest risk comes from environmental protection. Li Hongbao, Secretary General of the excavation machinery branch of China Construction Machinery Industry Association, said that the high growth since 2018 included the demand for "renewal"

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